A £37 Billion gamble... oops

Very interested to read this Reuters story about an employee of the French bank Societe General who managed to be quite sneaky... and get away with gambling £37 Billion pounds, that's 50 billion Euros, of the bank's money. Cheeky chap.

It's silly money we're talking about here. More "than the gross domestic product of Morocco". And it raises all sorts of questions.

First up is quite how he did it.

Secondly - accountability... call me naive and foolish, but I'm just wondering, how exactly does £37 billion in transactions go unnoticed? And what about if it is one single transaction, as they seem to be hinting at when they say a "50-billion-euro (37 billion pounds) market bet by a lone trader"? Has anyone in Societe General ever heard of safeguards? Fingers crossed my bank's a bit better organised.

Thirdly, what's the motive for one to take that kind of risk to one's own ass? Maybe Jerome Kerviel was harboring a secret desire to start building a really world class Underground Lair from which he could control the world? Not likely, there's just too much competition - too many Dr Evil wannabes dotting the planet. No it seems - according to his family - Jerome has no motive. Perhaps he's a sociopath. But that wouldn't explain why he's being really helpful during the investigation.

Maybe the real motive reads something like this?:
Bank gets greedy and wants to make lots of money (it's a bank, it's supposed to want this). It decides to gamble 50 billion Euros. Can't really do this legally, but dammnit! - it really wants a go! So it sets up all sorts of smoke and mirrors. But the gamble doesn't quite work out, and.. Holy Hairy Monkey Mother of the Monkey God - guys... GUYS! .. we may just have set off a series of events leading to a WORLDWIDE RECESSION!

"Merde! Comment pouvons-nous fixer ceci ?!!!" Calm down, calm down... I know, I've got it! Let's blame Junior Employee of the Month!

He'll go quietly as long as we tell him he'll only do two to five, plus a measly 375,000 Euro fine. That Swiss bank account for when he gets out will never show up on the investigation's radar. Aw, hell, hate to say it, we can't risk that, just tell him he'll get some money, then when he's inside, don't give it to him after all. Sorted. And you Mr Chief - Jean-Pierre Mustier - I know you're having a bad day, but you're going to have to pretend to want to resign. Chairman will handle the bit where he tells you "you've been a very naughty boy so you're going to have to stick around and clean this up".

It's all so ridiculous I am eagerly awaiting more information!

On the up side, and the story really is quite upbeat considering how many people must be totally screwed by the whole debacle, if indeed he is to blame, our young Jerome can't have been too bad at it. He only lost £7 billion - even if that was just from the £37 billion bet, that's about a 20% loss - not bad by gambling standards. Now, where's my local Coral shop?



For more randomness in the form of thoughts, stories, music and videos, visit duncanalex.com or imaginaryband.com

What makes Trailer Park Boys so good?

A friend got me into this show. He makes films - the latest one won some awards too. With my limited knowledge of TV, as far as I am aware Trailer Park Boys has never been aired in the UK, although I’d hazard a guess it has reached or is about to reach homes in the US, because the movie is soon hitting theatre screens there.

Anyway, when he said "check this out", I approached the first episode with slight trepidation. What hit you first are really dodgy haircuts and character names. Of course, you don't quite realise how funny it is yet. But soon, you're half way through the 20 minute episode and you've laughed out loud a couple of times at the ridiculousness of the whole situation and the behaviour of the characters - these grown adults behaving like playground children. And towards the end you find yourself rooting for them. The pleasant sting in the tail is that you're left with a warm and fuzzy feeling.

Because it's a show of interesting contradictions. It has heart. It also has crime, and moral ambiguity. It has one dimensional characters and it has really real characters.

By the third or fourth episode I was hooked to the main characters, the shambles they live in, the havoc reaped by Ricky the village idiot, and the drunken hilarity of Mr Lahey the Trailer Park Supervisor... not to mention his inimitable side-creasing relationship with pregnant-gutted partner-in-crime, Randy.

The stories are great. And to top it off TPB has proper character development, over the short and long term. That feels realistic, interesting, and most of all properly milks the characters and their changes, inside and out, for laughs. Everyone changes and grows. Even Randy's stomach gets bigger. And despite this, like in life, everyone keeps making the same mistakes, or slightly different ones, and somehow, everyone stays rooted to Sunnyvale Trailer Park. After all it's their territory, their home.

TPB has a certain kind of integrity too. This is unusual, coming from a TV series in which all the characters are wasters of one kind or another, including of course the quintessential trailer park trash, J-Roc, an Eminem-clone. We've got ex-cons, gangsta wannabes and porn movie makers, drug dealers, dirty cops, loose girls, shopping cart thieves. Everyone does alcohol and drugs to excess, and pretty much everyone is stupid and has utter disregard for the environment and the general public. But, believe me, you will grow to like these flawed characters. There are some core values there - family, loyalty and friendship stand out. A sense of community prevails. In some ways (and I say some) these complete idiots are better neighbours than many suburbian folks worldwide. It feels crazy to write these words, knowing the show!

So in summary I fully recommend it as an offbeat, hilarious show for open-minded folks. It encompasses many different types of humour but I'd have to say it has generally more male appeal (and by that I don't mean that it's sexist - in fact one of the amazing things is despite how easily it could fall into such traps, it is not sexist whatsoever). At times the lead actors are truly brilliant - some moments with Lahey and Ricky really stand out. The show covers morally dubious grounds and often. It's always entertaining and interesting because it smacks of the reality of a life on the fringes of society whilst keeping the focus firmly on the laughs. It's written, acted and filmed with rare discipline. It's so damn good cos it's a shitcom, Randy.

For more randomness in the form of thoughts, stories, music and videos, visit duncanalex.com or imaginaryband.com

Here's a little selection of photos from the areas around my home in beautiful Devon, UK.















For more randomness in the form of thoughts, stories, music and videos, visit duncanalex.com or imaginaryband.com

Who’s it going to be - Tsonga or Djokovic?

Personally, I would like to see Tsonga win. He seems a sweet natured lad. And it’s not his fault he’s French. Go Tsonga!

In the match we’ll have a quick mover with powerful serves versus… another quick mover with large serves. Just how quick is Tsonga? Well against Nadal, who seems to be one of the quickest around, the answer seems to come back as “pretty f’ing quick”. Or perhaps ordinarily quick (say, like… Federer!), but coupled with superb co-ordination and a massive wingspan - quite Ali-like in that regard too! Ali used to by turns reach to hit, and keep his opponents at bay, very successfully with his naturally long reach. If Tsonga keeps it up – keeps reaching shots, and keeps up the impeccable drop shots and volleys, he might just throw Djokovic’s rhythm off. Perhaps an upper hand?

Djokovic is one cocky boy, no doubt talented, bit of a thinker, perhaps not as bright as he thinks though. He could resort to gamesmanship. Those sorts of tactics may help crack someone who’s already down (e.g. Federer) but I couldn’t vouch for it lasting long as a successful approach if one was to gradually alienate the entire field of opponents. However, methinks gamesmanship might be water off Tsonga’s back as he is apparently of placid temperament and definitely, via his good-naturedness, a popular crowd-pleaser. Also he is aloof to the other player on court. So, versus a feisty annoyer (who seems slightly to feed off a partisan crowd as in the match against the crowd-backed Federer) this makes for an interesting match-up, one of the best.

Before the match I doubt Tsonga will say anything at all. Part of his power for now lies with the unknown. [Seems nobody has the full grasp yet of quite how or why he killed all those seeds]. But I’d expect pre-game psychological warfare from Djokovic as seemed to work for him against Federer. I’m almost certain Federer didn’t sleep too well and was worrying a bit, despite all his words to the contrary, having had the seeds of doubt planted by his opponent.

As an aside – no expert, obviously but I’m putting in my 2 cents (what are blogs for!) - I reckon Federer needs a new coach, i.e. a coach at all. Surely there’s times when he needs the wisdom, detached appraisal, support and master-planning that a coach/mentor could provide. I’ve no idea how many people are in his team already doing these things though… now that he can’t rely on being a better player than everyone else on every single day, perhaps he’d also benefit from some of the tidbits and knowledge about opponents that I suspect only a coach could pick up from the sidelines. He said recently he mainly focuses on improving his own game. A future weakness perhaps? Today Federer was thrashed by Djokovic. The other day, Djokovic reportedly gave fellow Serbian Tipsarevic some good advice on how to play Federer prior to that clash. Where does Federer get this sort of information on his opponents? Then again, from all accounts he’s a sociable chap so perhaps he has a collection of sports friends (and coaches) – you know, people like Tiger Woods, no one special, to call upon for advice and to restore faith in himself.

Speaking of faith in himself, Tsonga’s greatest strength, it appears, is just this. He has said it before. And no injuries now… Djokovic, for all his bravado, could be covering for his insecurities. I would bet he does not have the self-belief that the big Frenchman does. Even after thrashing Federer. And I reckon this might be his undoing.

Predictions on the scoreline… hmm. It’s fun to try… and I’ve never publicly gone out on a limb before, so sod it! After this morning, when my safe bet got beaten, I don’t care any more :). Let’s say a tough first set. A break of each. 7-5 to Djokovic. Set 2 goes 6-4 in Tsonga’s favour. Set 3 goes to Tsonga 6-3. Set 4 a tight one, 7-6 (5) Tsonga. C’mon Tsonga!

Music to be happy to and music to be sentimental to…
And here songs and videos available from 15 cents.

Federer v Djokovic - live

Here's a blow by blow account of the Djokivic Federer match.

Thank you to Paolo Bandini (Guardian Unlimited).

Long live the king!

Hope you enjoy this music.

Oh dear.

Djokovic beat Federer 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 (7-5)

Ah the stoic Swiss. To have that sense of perspective and grounded philosophy... "I think he made the more important points today, it was a bit unfortunate for me," Federer admitted. "It depends a lot on form, you can't always play your best. There is no doubt I have played better before. I've created a monster that I need to win every tournament. Still, the semi-finals isn't bad."

Here's a handy story about the match

For more randomness in the form of thoughts, stories, music and videos, visit duncanalex.com or imaginaryband.com

Tsonga hands Nadal a beating the likes of which he’s never seen

Right at this moment I’m following the scores (great, great pity I cannot see the match) of the Nadal Tsonga match, watching with disbelief as the in-form Nadal takes a beating the likes of which he’s never seen. No excuses, no injuries, simply seems like Tsonga got his number and just steam-rolled through him. Is a star born? Do we have a top four male players, all of a sudden, who are all capable of beating any of the other four? Seems so. Men’s tennis has suddenly blown wide open - with such a calibre of players as even Sampras could not deny is top class. Whether or not they have any of them won Grand Slams is moot - that is simply because one person until now has been doing all the winning (Federer).

Tsonga 6-2, 6-3, 6-2. As my Dad put it, “How amazing is that?”!

Here's Yahoo's take on it.

And an interesting summary of the match via the BBC site

For more randomness in the form of thoughts, stories, music and videos, visit duncanalex.com or imaginaryband.com

What stupid things have you done for your career?

Hmmm. Where to begin really...*
(*if you know me, or work with me, I will not confirm which if any of these events are real)

- Turning up at 9am on the first day. Turning up at closer to 10am pretty much most other days. Isn't flexi-time great. Getting home closer to 7pm than 6pm most nights.

- Allowing yourself different facial hair throughout the week. That's because you don't like shaving, by the way. You know that the more you shave, you more you have to shave. Plus you're already shaving more, so there's even more shaving to do than the more you were shaving.

- The Regional Boss is "doing the rounds"/"pressing palms"/"putting names to faces", and reaches your desk. You turn up in plain clothes (well, it is casual Friday) at close to 9:55 on a Friday.

- Having a girlfriend over on a Sunday night, but taking her back to the train station at around 9.15 on the Monday morning. Forgetting about traffic. Ringing the boss on speakerphone.

- The equivalent of a sub-Regional boss pops his head into a Team meeting of ten or so people and tells the Team that his weekend was ok except he now has a sore back and blisters. You ask him "what have you been doing?"

- Contradicting the sub-Regional boss in front of his subordinates. And letting him down when he was counting on you not to stuff up. Bringing a set of plans/data/tables/charts that you spent hours making, getting into the meeting and finding the rules have changed completely and nothing you brought along is relevant or useful.

- Being interviewed by your team mates, for your own job, and being more nervous than if it were Satan himself seated on the other side of the table.



For more randomness in the form of thoughts, stories, music and videos, visit duncanalex.com or imaginaryband.com

Meet Duncan Alex

Unbeatable Quality of Life…

A little while back I was interested to read the below article about the best places to live in the world.

My ears tend to prick up at these sorts of surverys. I've lived in two countries, and visited many, mostly as a child. I enjoy travelling, and would do it more if finances and time (and the environment) allowed! It’s also an interesting discussion to consider what it means for most people – that elusive “better quality of life

Having visited all four countries in Scandinavia when I was still fairly young, and re-visiting Norway in spring 2006, I find myself nodding along to this article which lists not one but THREE Scandinavian countries in the top four countries for “taking the greatest care of their environment and their people”. Having seen the odd documentary about Iceland, however, I do wonder। No doubt though that one must at least actually visit a country to make one’s own mind up. Tourists will consistently meet only one side of a country. My recent trip to Norway did however reinforce what as a child I sort of “felt” years ago – here is a country that knows how to milk the best from its resources (and cows) – apparently pretty sustainably (I admired their in-store recycling facilities, for example) and treats its people very well. Apart from the food. And apparently, it’s not great to live there not if you happen to fall foul of the stringent laws. I have no experience of the latter and hope not to, but it’s a point worth examining – no good having a nice life generally if you occasionally got locked away for parking in the wrong spot! Laws are set up to protect the majority, who don’t step out of line, but everyone messes up sometimes.

Best way to get to know a country is obviously to live there for a while (and work presumably, unless you are a lucky person). Ok say it’s beautiful. Being surrounded by beauty is nice, and certainly helps with your general spirits, getting up in the morning etc. but it doesn’t help if you can’t get along with the people, for example. So, what are the people really like, once you get to know them, their attitudes to you new people/foreigners/strangers (you), and what about the food, what about those little things that add up on the bad days, what about the services? Beauty doesn’t pay the bills. Conversely, and an extreme example to make this point - I have friends and family who’ve visited some of the most poverty-stricken places in the world, like the Favelas (slums) of Rio, and noted a wonderful sense of community and bonding, even optimism. To many kind, charitable people that sort of thing might even outweigh the downsides and fill their hearts more with happiness than sadness. I reckon it might break my empathetic (pathetic?!) spirit. Anyway I digress. The point is, what if you get to your chosen new country and find you can’t work in your chosen profession, or there simply isn’t a market for the wind-vanes that you wanted to make in your retirement?

If we are talking purely about the look of a place, I find Scandinavia really picturesque, some of it truly stunning. Surely Norway must be one of the most beautiful places on earth. I long to visit there again, next time with snow! I love the classic christmas/faerytale look, the spectacular swooping hills, mountains and valleys, the glassy lakes and fjords, the lush green fields. I feel warmly about the architecture that’s full of slopes, nooks and crannies, and natural wood.

When it comes to environmental considerations - that is, how a country treats its environment, I was surprised to see Australia there at spot number eight। With the amount of large and old vehicles, no MOT requirements last time I checked, and long distance journeys that are almost a requirement, not to mention the considerably cheaper fuel, I wondered if the survey was really taking the environment that much into account. Surely Australia won’t suddenly be meeting its Kyoto targets, and it has a very high carbon footprint per capita. Then there’s the diminishing coral reefs, and massive drought problems all over, resulting in issues such as salinity, for example in the Murray-Darling Basin. However, Australia is without doubt a fairly low-stress, low cost, chilled out place to live, with most places offering relatively traffic- and queue- free living with a lot of access to reasonably priced nice things, for example, individually styled houses, sports facilities, and international dining, particularly in Melbourne. I think Australia must offer some of the best climates in the world in certain pockets, but being huge, obviously it’s not the same all over. For my tastes Tasmania has nice weather.

Finally, no surprise to see Asian mega-cities in the worst positions. But has air quality (which is by all accounts atrocious in those places) swayed results considerably in one direction. How do places like ex-Eastern block countries fair? Also, how would poor but happy places fair? Back to my earlier point, to some tourists, the sight of families lining the slum streets of Rwanda, waving and smiling at tourist buses flying by, and your arms aching from waving so much, opens up a can of worms: a new way of living life that could prove more captivating and engrossing than anything a comfortable life can offer.

I do suspect there are a lot of places that slip between the cracks in these surveys, sometimes the classic “standout” holiday destinations might monopolise the results somewhat in their favour, whilst humbler hosts keep their their secret gems quiet.

For more randomness in the form of thoughts, stories, music and videos, visit imaginaryband.com or duncanalex.com

Can’t beat quality of life in Scandinavia, says world ranking Thu Sep 20, 11:18 AM ET
PARIS (AFP) - Nordic countries take the greatest care of their environment and their people, according to a ranking published on Thursday by the publication Reader’s Digest.
Finland comes top of the 141-nation list, followed by Iceland, Norway and Sweden, and then Austria, Switzerland, Ireland and Australia.
At the bottom of the list is Ethiopia, preceded by Niger, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso and Chad.
The United States comes in 23rd, China 84th and India 104th.
The ranking combines environmental factors, such as air and water quality, respect for biodiversity and greenhouse-gas emissions, as well as social factors, such as gross domestic product, access to education, unemployment rate and life expectancy.
The statistical basis is the UN’s Human Development Index and the Environmental Sustainability Index drawn up by Yale and Columbia universities and the World Economic Forum.
European countries — again, led by Scandinavia — also top the Reader’s Digest assessment of 72 cities for their quality of life. The criteria for this include public transport, parks, air quality, rubbish recycling and the price of electricity.
The winner is Stockholm, followed by Oslo, Munich and Paris.
Asia’s mega-cities fare the worst. At the bottom is Beijing, preceded by Shanghai, Mumbai, Guangzhou and Bangkok.

Also pertaining to this article is one about women in Norwegian companies…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7176879.stm

As background to the first article, I thought I’d check, because it is interesting to see who shapes the opinions of the world - who owns Reader’s Digest?It is Ripplewood. Ripplewood is an American private equity firm that manages more than $10 billion in capital. Ripplewood was founded by its current CEO, Tim Collins. The company’s main interests range from telecommunications to banking to entertainment.It has recently purchased the Power systems division from Alcatel and has renamed it SAFT Power Systems. It is the holder of widely-recognised brands of industrial products such as Harmer+Simmons, AEG SVS, SAFT, etc. In November, 2006, Ripplewood led a private-equity consortium (a “club deal”) in the $2.4 billion leveraged buyout of Reader’s Digest.
The company is currently active in European markets as well, where it owns (amongst others) HONSEL INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES S.A.
In Japan, Ripplewood is known for its acquisition of Seagia in Miyazaki, Japan, the successful turn-around and IPO of Shinsei Bank and the acquisition and quick turn-around sale of Japan Telecom. Aside from its Shinsei Bank success, the firm’s other investments in Japan are considered to require longer-than-expected holding time

The Jarvis Nebulae Files - Part Five

© Duncan Wheeler 1997-2008

The smell of hospital strength detergent nearly brought my stomach contents up. But I couldn’t remember my last meal.

One thing I did remember however, was a vague sense of shame, and I knew it wasn't because I was naked in a public place. Not that I was hanging out on a pole suspended above a mosh pit or anything, I did have sheets between my personage and the general viewing public. It just felt kind of weird. Then the young, extremely attractive nurse came in and my schoolboy fantasies escalated.

My mind raced in an effort to escape yet more embarrassment. Unfortunately it raced in the wrong direction, and in this respect Fantasy Man was very fit - and despite how hard tubby Reason rotated his stumpy legs and sweated like a pig, he could not catch up. Fantasy Man hurled insults which quite hurt Reason’s feelings and stalled him, because he couldn’t help thinking about whether or not such terrible things were true.

Then Fantasy Man, well in the lead now, had time to leave traps for Reason, like this one which he thought was really clever: "fantasising abut this drop-dead gorgeous nurse will make your stay in hospital all the more enjoyable, and thus revitalise and heal you quicker". So of course, Fantasy Man ran the race, won hands down, and escaped without a scratch. Testosterone levels peaked, and so, inevitably, did the bed sheets.

So it was maybe an hour after the nurse had left the room that the juices stopped flowing, and the useless piece of brain fondly known as Reason puffed and panted his case to Vortag, Supreme Ruler Of The Neuron. Vortag did not deign to feign gratitude, he only replied, "It has already come to my attention, you worthless tiny little globule of rubber, by the esteemed grace of Ego, that this woman of whom you speak would make a complete fool of you within two seconds of you opening your mouth. So your whiney observations are rendered completely invalid. Like you!" he sat back and a pleased look entered his otherwise agitated face.

"So, you ask, how could this women destroy your very presence? Shut Up! I didn't say you could speak! Shutup! Shutup! You are a remarkable specimen of redundancy and have little time for you. So let me take only two examples of your last conscious efforts at tackling life!!! One: You have absolutely no answer, not even an insult worth mentioning, for a rowdy heard of walking meat lockers protecting their baby. Two, you have no comprehension that attacking a calf, for its skin, is a completely socially unacceptable manner in which to gain clothing. And might I also point out as a bonus for your collection, Kaptain Kill, that the Cave Dwellers Society of Tasmania is nothing more than a fancy-dress party for University Arts School students next to whose intelligence yours is nothing but that of an Amoeba."

Crestfallen, Reason ran away, found a suitable corner of the mind, and burst into tears. Despite the connotations of a supposedly logical and fundamental extension being allowed such silliness. In fact his own feelings were in disarray.

But I don’t want to dwell too much upon the massively efficient bulbous grey blob in my skull. Back to my predicament: What was I doing in hospital? Did someone know something about how I got here? Why did I have large, blunt-looking indentations in my arms.

Then the doctor came in, with a king-size smirk on his face. "Are you enjoying your stay?", he asked.

Taken aback, I said, "Very much"2 thinking of the nurse.

"Yes, well, we are quite enjoying your stay too..." he said, and looked as though he were about to burst into laughter.

"We’re having a cow of a time!"

"We are really stoked, or should that be, steaked about having you!" [accompanied by an involuntary wave of his hand in the air]

"Anyway, sonny, after we picked you up off the rocks, we rang your family to get permission because we had to use a road-drill to open up your incredibly thick skull. They said they didn’t know who you were, and had had enough of that shit to last a lifetime, but we managed to get some of your old medical files they were about to throw out along with some toys."

... this was leading somewhere, and I wasn't sure where, but I didn't like it.

"In the process we came across some old intelligence test records..."

My head needed itching. So I scratched it.

"You know, you're pretty smart..." - losing interest I looked towards the window, but couldn't help noticing the doctor was positively spewing saliva,

"...FOR AN ORANGUTAN!!!!!!" he yelled, and overjoyed at his statement, spontaneously collapsed about the room, knocking over trays, vases, a table, and, unfortunately, my life support system... But I was calm, I was ready to go peacefully this time, to leave this world, drift into the clouds and fly free as a bird into the happy land above.

Then I had a dream. And a dream I had. That I did, and it was a dream.

The end of part one of the Jarvis Nebulae Files .

For more randomness in the form of thoughts, stories, music and videos, visit:
http://www.duncanalex.com

Duncan Alex