Sunday, January 27, 2008

A £37 Billion gamble... oops

Very interested to read this Reuters story about an employee of the French bank Societe General who managed to be quite sneaky... and get away with gambling £37 Billion pounds, that's 50 billion Euros, of the bank's money. Cheeky chap.

It's silly money we're talking about here. More "than the gross domestic product of Morocco". And it raises all sorts of questions.

First up is quite how he did it.

Secondly - accountability... call me naive and foolish, but I'm just wondering, how exactly does £37 billion in transactions go unnoticed? And what about if it is one single transaction, as they seem to be hinting at when they say a "50-billion-euro (37 billion pounds) market bet by a lone trader"? Has anyone in Societe General ever heard of safeguards? Fingers crossed my bank's a bit better organised.

Thirdly, what's the motive for one to take that kind of risk to one's own ass? Maybe Jerome Kerviel was harboring a secret desire to start building a really world class Underground Lair from which he could control the world? Not likely, there's just too much competition - too many Dr Evil wannabes dotting the planet. No it seems - according to his family - Jerome has no motive. Perhaps he's a sociopath. But that wouldn't explain why he's being really helpful during the investigation.

Maybe the real motive reads something like this?:
Bank gets greedy and wants to make lots of money (it's a bank, it's supposed to want this). It decides to gamble 50 billion Euros. Can't really do this legally, but dammnit! - it really wants a go! So it sets up all sorts of smoke and mirrors. But the gamble doesn't quite work out, and.. Holy Hairy Monkey Mother of the Monkey God - guys... GUYS! .. we may just have set off a series of events leading to a WORLDWIDE RECESSION!

"Merde! Comment pouvons-nous fixer ceci ?!!!" Calm down, calm down... I know, I've got it! Let's blame Junior Employee of the Month!

He'll go quietly as long as we tell him he'll only do two to five, plus a measly 375,000 Euro fine. That Swiss bank account for when he gets out will never show up on the investigation's radar. Aw, hell, hate to say it, we can't risk that, just tell him he'll get some money, then when he's inside, don't give it to him after all. Sorted. And you Mr Chief - Jean-Pierre Mustier - I know you're having a bad day, but you're going to have to pretend to want to resign. Chairman will handle the bit where he tells you "you've been a very naughty boy so you're going to have to stick around and clean this up".

It's all so ridiculous I am eagerly awaiting more information!

On the up side, and the story really is quite upbeat considering how many people must be totally screwed by the whole debacle, if indeed he is to blame, our young Jerome can't have been too bad at it. He only lost £7 billion - even if that was just from the £37 billion bet, that's about a 20% loss - not bad by gambling standards. Now, where's my local Coral shop?



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